A new report predicts a dramatic shift for ocean shipping after the Panama Canal expansion opens—but not everyone’s aboard.

The expansion of the Panama Canal to accommodate more and larger ocean traffic is going to have a profound effect on the U.S. logistics landscape. But in a system that’s so complex, it’s hard to pin down exactly what we can expect.

That doesn’t stop some from trying: A new study by the Boston Consulting Group projects that the expansion will shift 10% of East Asia container traffic from West Coast ports to the East Coast by 2020. East Coast ports are already steadily gaining shares of that flow, so the total shift between now and 2020 could be more like 15%, leaving a 50/50 balance between the coasts.

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